Utilisation des flux de trésorerie actualisés dynamiques (DCF) et des options réelles pour évaluer la valeur et les risques des investissements miniers
Short Course Level: Intermediate
Facilitator: Michael Samis, SCM Decisions
Short Course Objectives
This workshop is a practical overview of applying Dynamic Discounted Cash Flow (Dynamic DCF) and Real Option (RO) methods to value and assess the risk of mining investments. It has three objectives:
- Discuss important project characteristics that influence value and risk – financial market and technical uncertainty, execution risk, operating leverage, management flexibility, and the interaction between equity, government, and non-equity project participants.
- Demonstrate how a detailed description of financial and technical risk, project structure and flexibility, financing, and government participation can be combined in a dynamic cash flow model to communicate operating policy and the distribution of value and risk that cannot be matched by conventional cash flow models.
- Uncover the unique investment situations where Dynamic DCF and RO techniques can provide fresh insights. Applications include exploration, pilot programs, short versus long-life project horizons, staged development, alternative finance, and international corporate portfolios.
Abstract
What you will learn:
Investment decision-making and risk management in the mining industry are becoming increasingly complex because of:
- Increased technical uncertainty due to the difficulty of finding new deposits and the decline in deposit quality,
- Complex market, technical, and execution risk exposures,
- The flexibility to actively manage project investment; and,
- Financing and taxation structures that distribute value and risk in a complicated manner.
This complexity increases the difficulty of analyzing many mining investments in a way that accounts for each investment’s unique structure and risk characteristics. Unfortunately, the static cash flow models often used to support investment decisions struggle to capture the distinct characteristics of many mining investments.
Advances in finance theory and risk management allow mining professionals to improve their financial and risk analysis using dynamic cash flow models. These models improve investment analysis by dynamically describing uncertainty, recognizing unusual project features and flexibility, and assessing the value and risk-transfer effects of complex financing and taxation structures.
We’ll illustrate key concepts with a series of case studies involving:
- How exploration and the engineering study process create value.
- The hidden value benefit of long-life copper projects over multiple price cycles.
- How alternative finance may distribute value and risk in a surprising manner.
- The impact of jurisdiction and the development stage of each asset on the risk profile of an M&A transaction.
Join us to learn how financial and technical uncertainty, project structure, and financing structures influence the value and risk of mining investments.
About the instructor
Michael Samis, Ph.D., P.Eng. Principal and founder, SCM Decisions Mike is a leading Integrated Valuation and Risk Modelling practitioner in the natural resource industries with over 35 years of mining experience.
He has extensive professional experience valuing mining projects with complex forms of flexibility and risk. His assignments have ranged from exploration to late-stage capital investments, including project financing and contingent taxes.
Mike was previously an Associate Partner and Senior Manager at EY for 11 years, where he valued complex financial securities such as employee stock options, contingent contracts, and financial derivatives in addition to his consulting work in the mining industry. Before this, he worked for AMEC as the Technical Director of Mineral Economics. He currently assists mining clients to align capital allocation decisions with business strategy through SCM Decisions.